Compared to 2017, Bangkok property markets would be expected to be worsening in 2018 due to the slow recovery of purchasing power of home buyers.
Dr.Sopon Pornchokchai, Ph.D. Dip.FIABCI, MRICS, President, Agency for Real Estate Affairs (www.area.co.th) said that according to the latest survey of newly launched housing projects in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR), 174 projects were found with a total number of newly launched units of 43,703 totally Baht 173.014 billion (5.581 billion USD). An average price of a unit was USD 127,705 which was approximately 35% of the average price of those in USA (USD 368,500) (https://bit.ly/2pauaoK)
However, if the 6-month figures were doubled, it was found that the total number of projects, units and value of 2018 would be -15%, -24% and -22% of those in 2017 respectively. This implies the sharp shrinkage of the economy of Thailand despite the effort of the government who tried to mention that the economy was getting better.
In an overall estimate, Agency for Real Estate Affairs added some other factors. It was estimated that the real figure in the first half of 2018 would be somewhat 10% higher than it was found. In a quarterly survey, we always found more projects which were not reported in a monthly survey. In addition, it was forecasted that in the second half of 2018, the situation could be another 20% better than the performance in the first half.
Consequently, it was forecasted that in 2018 as a whole, there should be some 421 projects which would be 3% more than the number of projects launched in 2017. However, the number of units launched would be some 105,761 which would still be 8% lower than that in 2017 (114,477 units). In addition, the value of the development in 2018 would be USD 13.506 billion which would be some 5% below the value in 2017 at USD 14.247 billion.
Dr.Sopon said that the figures on the number of newly launched projects, units and value were the most realistic indicators. When the situation was bad or the economy was not performed well, fewer new developments would be initiated. Agency for Real Estate Affairs has been collecting all these data in Thailand since 1994 and is recognized as the first and the largest real estate information centre in Thailand.
An implication on these findings is that Thai economy was not fully recovered as said by the government. If there is no free and fair election, the political environment would not be improved. This hampers the developments of the country. In investing in real estate markets, one must analyze and plan with scrutiny.