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Housing Markets Outlook, Mid 2018
AREA Press Release No. 365/2018: July 26, 2018

Dr.Sopon Pornchokchai, Ph.D. Dip.FIABCI, MRICS
President, Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA)

There are still no serious oversupplies in Bangkok's housing markets as of Mid 2018 unless the supplies are still increase steadily.  If the supplies are controlled, the 2018 markets would be still stable.  The supplies were smaller.  This implies the slow down of the economy but would be good for no oversupplies in the markets

Dr.Sopon Pornchokchai, President, Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA) presented a latest research paper on the real estate markets in the Bangkok Metropolitan Region with reference to the trends as of mid 2018.  AREA is the largest real estate information and valuation centre in this ASEAN Region.  The following is a summary of this presentation.

AREA conducts surveys of all types of real estate projects launched on monthly basis since January 1994.  In addition, AREA also conducts surveys on the updates of sales of existing housing projects on a quarterly basis in Bangkok as well.  In the latest survey in mid 2018, we found some 191 real estate projects launched during the first half of 2018.  Most of them were housing projects (owner-occupied low-rise residences and condominiums).  In addition, we also updated some 2004 projects in the markets.  Hence, this survey is always the largest one in Thailand.

Our information is thus the first-hand information catered for real estate developers, bankers and financiers, professionals in real estate, investors and the like.  AREA is very neutral because it will not get involved in real estate development nor brokerage business itself.  Our integrity is that we have no developers nor bankers sitting in our board to oversee our information prior to our members.

During the first half of 2018, the total number of real estate projects launched was 191 projects  compared to 198 projects launched last year.  Considering housing alone, the total number of projects were 189 with 45,873 housing units of all types at the value of USD 6.018 billion.  This made an average price of a unit at USD 131,181 which was approximately one third of the average house price in USA.

This is shrinking.  for the first half of last year (201), the total number of units was 54,281 units at a total value of Baht 182.647 billion (USD 5.372 billion at that time Baht 34 = USD 1) of the total 193 projects.  It can be observed that the average size per project was 281 units in 2017, significantly larger compared to the 2016 average of 241 units.

It is estimated that in 2018 as a whole, there would be 416 projects with a total number of units of 100,921 or USD 13.239 billion.  Compared to 2017, the total number of housing units and the value launched would be somewhat 12% and 7% lower.  This significant difference implies that the markets in 2018 would be not so active.

Developers and financiers should pay high attention to develop or finance projects at present so that the supplies would not be too high.  Otherwise, there might be oversupplies in the fuuture.

Changes in Bangkok Housing Markets, 2017-18
Year  No. of   No. of   Value   Price/Unit  Units
   Projects  Units   (Bil of USD)   (USD)  /Project
Situation in 2017 410  114,477 14.247 124,454 279
First 6 month of 2018 189 45,873 6.018 131,181 243
2018 Whole Year Forecast 1 378 91,746 12.035 131,181 243
    Change -8% -20% -16% 5% -13%
2018 Whole Year Forecast 2 416  100,921 13.239 131,181 243
    Change 1% -12% -7% 5% -13%
Forecast 1: Figures of the first half multiplied by 2
Forecast 2: Assuming, figures of the 2nd half would be 20% more than the 1st
Agency Real Estate Affaris (www.area.co.th)