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Global Real Estate Outlook and Bangladesh
AREA Press Release No. 1022/2026: September 22, 2026
Dr.Sopon Pornchokchai, Ph.D. Dip.FIABCI, MRICS
President, Agency for Real Estate Affairs (AREA)
We are entering a new phase of real estate—not a conventional boom and not a global crash.
The central theme is “selective growth amid structural change.” Real estate will increasingly be divided between assets and cities that benefit from demographic, technological and infrastructure trends, and those suffering from oversupply, high debt or population decline.
The IMF currently projects global GDP growth of about 3.0% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, but inflation has become more persistent and geopolitical risks remain substantial.
My global real-estate outlook: 2026–2030
1. Interest rates will remain the most important variable
The old real-estate model was built around very cheap money.
That era is probably over.
Even if central banks eventually reduce short-term rates, long-term borrowing costs may remain relatively high because governments carry enormous debt and investors demand higher yields. Global public debt is approaching 100% of GDP, creating pressure on bond yields and financing costs.
Consequences:
I would therefore expect cap rates/yields to remain structurally higher than in the previous decade.
2. Residential real estate: demand remains, but affordability becomes the problem
There is an interesting paradox:
The world needs more housing, but many people cannot afford the housing that is being built.
This creates two very different markets.
Winners
Losers
The U.S. illustrates the affordability problem particularly well: mortgage rates remain around 7%, while house prices remain high, creating a significant barrier for new buyers.
3. China is the world's most important warning
I would pay very close attention to China.
China demonstrates what happens when:
overbuilding + excessive leverage + demographic decline + falling expectations
come together.
A recent Reuters survey expects Chinese home prices to fall around 3.4% in 2026, while property investment could fall approximately 20%.
This is not simply a temporary property recession.
It represents a structural transition from:
“Build more → sell more → prices rise”
to:
“Population + income + genuine demand determine value.”
That lesson is extremely important for Southeast Asia.
4. The office market will not return to the old normal
COVID-19 permanently changed office demand.
I don't believe the world will return to the 2019 model of everyone working in an office five days a week.
But I also don't believe the office will disappear.
Instead, we will have a three-tier office market:
A. Prime Grade-A offices
B. Ordinary offices
C. Obsolete offices
Potential candidates for:
The biggest opportunity may therefore be conversion rather than new construction.
5. AI will create a completely new real-estate sector
This is perhaps the most important structural change.
AI is not only a technology story.
It is becoming a real-estate story.
AI requires:
The IMF itself identifies the AI-driven technology cycle as an important force supporting global growth in 2026–27.
Therefore, I expect the strongest new real-estate opportunities to include:
Data centers → logistics → power infrastructure → industrial land → semiconductor ecosystems.
But there is a major caveat:
A data center without sufficient electricity and water is not really a data-center opportunity.
Thus, electricity availability may become as important as land availability.
6. Logistics and industrial property will remain among the strongest sectors
Global supply chains are being reorganized.
Companies increasingly want:
This creates demand for:
industrial estates + warehouses + logistics centers + ports + rail connections.
Countries such as:
could benefit from this restructuring.
For Thailand, I see a particularly interesting opportunity around industrial/logistics corridors connected to ports, airports and major highways.
7. Tourism and hospitality will remain attractive
International tourism has become an important real-estate driver.
Hotels, resorts, serviced apartments and branded residences can perform particularly well where:
But there is a distinction between tourism demand and tourism real estate.
A beautiful resort does not automatically make a good investment.
The key is:
RevPAR + occupancy + land cost + financing cost + replacement cost.
8. Demographics will become more important than GDP
This is a major change in the way I would analyze real estate.
Previously:
GDP growth → income growth → housing demand → property appreciation
Increasingly:
Population + household formation + migration + income + employment → property demand
Consider two cities with the same GDP growth.
City A:
City B:
Their property markets can behave completely differently.
Therefore, population and household projections may become more important than GDP forecasts.
9. Climate change will change property valuation
This is another structural transformation.
Real estate valuation will increasingly incorporate:
In some locations, insurance costs could become a hidden property tax.
A property may appear inexpensive based on price per square meter, but if insurance, flood protection and cooling costs rise dramatically, its true investment value may be much lower.
This will increasingly affect coastal cities, including parts of:
Miami, New York, London, Bangkok, Jakarta, Manila and Ho Chi Minh City.
10. The geography of real estate investment will change
I see a gradual movement of capital toward cities that combine:
population growth + economic growth + infrastructure + political stability + reasonable property prices.
That makes parts of Asia particularly interesting.
Potential long-term winners
Huge population, urbanization and economic expansion.
Large domestic market and infrastructure development.
Manufacturing and supply-chain relocation.
Demographics, BPO/services and urbanization.
Tourism, logistics, industrial investment, retirement/lifestyle demand—but with a major demographic challenge.
Interesting because of tourism, institutional quality and redevelopment, although demographics remain problematic.
11. Bangkok is particularly interesting
For Thailand, I would divide the market into five different markets, rather than talking about "Bangkok property" as one market.
The most important point is that Bangkok should not be analyzed as a single property market.
A prime condominium next to mass transit can behave completely differently from a condominium in an oversupplied suburban location.
12. The biggest investment opportunity may be "mispriced real estate"
I expect the next decade to be less about buying everything during a boom and more about finding mispriced assets.
For example:
This means real-estate operators may outperform passive property owners.
My 2026–2030 global real-estate thesis
I would summarize the next cycle like this:
2020–2022
Cheap money + speculation
↓
2023–2025
Interest-rate shock + repricing
↓
2026–2028
Selective recovery + structural restructuring
↓
2028–2030
Technology + demographics + infrastructure determine winners
Bangladesh—and Dhaka (Dacca) in particular—is one of the more interesting emerging-market real-estate stories in Asia, but it is currently a market of contradiction.
My assessment as of September 2026 is:
Long-term fundamentals are strong, but the short-term market is weak.
I would therefore distinguish between “real-estate demand” and “real-estate investment performance.” Bangladesh has enormous underlying housing demand, but high interest rates, inflation, construction costs and weak purchasing power are preventing that demand from translating into transactions.
1. My overall assessment
I would give Bangladesh real estate:
This is actually quite an interesting combination.
The market is not suffering from a fundamental lack of people who need housing. Rather, it is suffering from a lack of purchasing power and housing finance.
Recent industry reporting describes a severe slowdown: apartment sales have fallen dramatically, while construction costs and financing costs remain high. Some reports put monthly industry sales at only around 250–300 units versus roughly 1,000 previously.
But simultaneously, Bangladesh continues to urbanize rapidly. The urban share of population increased from 8.9% in 1974 to 31.7% in 2022, while average household size has fallen substantially. That means the structural requirement for housing continues to increase.
That is the paradox.
2. Dhaka is the key
If I were looking at Bangladesh from an international real-estate investment perspective, I would focus overwhelmingly on Dhaka metropolitan area.
Dhaka has three enormous advantages:
2.1. Population concentration
Dhaka is the country's economic engine.
People move toward Dhaka because of:
Therefore, the demand for land in strategically located parts of Dhaka is structurally strong.
2.2. Land scarcity
Dhaka has an unusual combination:
huge population + limited well-located land + inadequate infrastructure.
That tends to support land values over the long term.
2.3. Housing shortage
Some recent analyses estimate formal developers supply only around 25,000 units annually against potential demand of approximately 120,000 units in Dhaka. The precise figures should be treated cautiously because Bangladesh's housing market contains a large informal/self-built component, but the direction is clear: formal housing supply is inadequate relative to urban demand.
3. But there is a major problem: affordability
This is probably the single biggest issue in Dhaka real estate.
A typical middle-class worker increasingly cannot afford a new apartment.
One recent analysis notes that even a modest two-bedroom apartment can cost around Tk40 lakh in less-serviced areas, while the relationship between wages and apartment prices has become increasingly unfavorable.
So we have:
High housing demand
but
low effective purchasing power.
That produces an unusual market:
People need apartments but cannot buy them.
This is why I would not interpret the housing shortage as automatically meaning that apartment prices will rise rapidly.
4. Interest rates are critical
Bangladesh's monetary conditions are currently a major constraint.
High interest rates make mortgages expensive and therefore reduce the number of households able to purchase.
One 2026 market assessment reports Bangladesh Bank's policy rate around 10%, illustrating how expensive credit remains.
This is extremely important.
Consider the difference between:
Apartment price = Tk10 million
and
Apartment price = Tk10 million financed at a very high interest rate.
The second can be dramatically less affordable.
Therefore, I expect the Dhaka residential market to respond strongly when:
inflation falls → interest rates fall → mortgage affordability improves.
That could be the trigger for the next meaningful housing recovery.
5. I would NOT expect a major collapse in prime Dhaka land
This is where I differ somewhat from the pessimistic interpretation of the current housing slump.
I would expect transaction volumes to remain depressed, but prime land prices to demonstrate considerably more resilience.
Why?
Because Dhaka has:
Therefore:
Apartments
Could experience stagnation or negotiation.
Prime land
Much more likely to remain resilient.
This distinction is extremely important.
6. Dhaka is NOT one property market
This is perhaps the most important point for an investor.
I would divide Dhaka roughly into four markets.
Investment quality: ★★★★★
These are the prestige/business districts.
Demand comes from:
I would expect prices here to be relatively resilient.
Investment quality: ★★★★
An established residential/educational/medical area.
The advantage is that it already has an established urban ecosystem.
The disadvantage is that affordability becomes increasingly difficult.
Investment quality: ★★★★½
This is particularly interesting because of transportation connectivity.
Operational mass transit changes the economics of location.
The lesson is the same one we see in Bangkok:
Transit accessibility can create a permanent land-value premium.
Recent Dhaka market analysis also identifies Uttara as one of the areas benefiting from transit-supported demand.
Investment quality: ★★★
Potentially very interesting—but much more dependent on infrastructure, supply and execution.
There is a danger here:
Developers can create too much apartment supply in areas where infrastructure and purchasing power have not caught up.
Recent reporting indicates particularly weak apartment sales even in some Bashundhara projects.
7. Purbachal could be strategically important
I would watch Purbachal very carefully.
The new urban expansion east of Dhaka is potentially comparable to the role that planned peripheral developments have played in other Asian megacities.
But I would make an important distinction:
Buying land because "Purbachal will become the next Dhaka" is speculation.
Buying property where:
is much safer.
Infrastructure must actually exist, rather than merely appear in a master plan.
8. The real opportunity may be affordable housing
This is where I think Bangladesh could become extremely interesting.
The market has historically concentrated on relatively expensive apartments.
But Bangladesh's biggest opportunity is probably:
mass-market urban housing.
Instead of building:
2,000–3,000 sq ft luxury apartments
I would investigate:
600–1,200 sq ft affordable/middle-income apartments.
Why?
Because Bangladesh's urban population is enormous and household sizes are declining.
The problem is not lack of demand.
It is:
price × financing × land cost.
If developers can solve those three variables, the market could become enormous.
9. Another major opportunity: rental housing
This is underappreciated.
When people cannot afford to buy, they rent.
Therefore:
Housing affordability crisis → rental demand.
I would investigate professionally managed:
This could eventually become a major institutional investment sector in Dhaka.
10. Commercial real estate
I would be more selective.
Office
★★★
Demand exists, but the market needs modernization and better-quality buildings.
Retail
★★★½
Dhaka's growing middle class supports shopping centers, but location and catchment area are critical.
Logistics
★★★★½
Potentially one of the best opportunities.
Bangladesh is a major manufacturing/export economy, especially textiles and garments.
Therefore:
factory → warehouse → logistics → port → urban distribution
creates substantial property demand.
11. Industrial property could outperform residential
This is something I would investigate very seriously.
Bangladesh's export manufacturing economy creates demand for:
This may produce better risk-adjusted returns than luxury condominiums.
To build Future Dhaka through Innovation, Sustainability & Global Investment, I would not start with individual real-estate projects. I would start with a citywide development strategy.
My central proposition would be:
Future Dhaka should become a compact, connected, climate-resilient, technology-enabled and investment-friendly megacity—where better urban infrastructure creates better real-estate value.
Dhaka has the scale and economic importance to do this, but it needs to move from unplanned urban expansion toward integrated metropolitan development.
A possible vision: “Future Dhaka 2035”
Innovation + Sustainability + Global Investment + Inclusive Growth
→ better infrastructure
→ higher productivity
→ better quality of life
→ stronger real-estate market
→ international capital
→ sustainable economic growth
1. Build Dhaka around mobility, not around cars
The first principle should be:
Transit-oriented development (TOD).
Dhaka should develop high-density mixed-use urban centers around:
Instead of allowing uncontrolled horizontal expansion, create a network of 20–30-minute urban districts where people can reach work, schools, healthcare, shopping and recreation without depending on private cars.
This has an enormous real-estate implication:
Transit investment → accessibility → land-value increase → development potential → tax revenue.
Dhaka should capture part of that increase in land value and recycle it into infrastructure.
2. Create a “Polycentric Dhaka”
One of Dhaka's fundamental problems is excessive concentration.
Instead of one enormous central business district, develop several specialized urban centers:
Dhaka Urban Network
Central Dhaka
Government + culture + established commercial areas
Gulshan–Banani
International business + finance + diplomatic activities
Uttara
Airport + business + technology + regional gateway
Purbachal
New CBD + technology + finance + residential development
Savar–Ashulia
Industry + logistics + manufacturing
Keraniganj
Residential + logistics + river-oriented development
This creates a metropolitan system rather than one congested city.
3. Make Purbachal a global investment district
If properly planned, Purbachal could become one of the most important strategic development areas in Bangladesh.
But it should not simply become another enormous housing estate.
I would create a:
“Purbachal Global City”
with:
The objective should be:
Create a place where an international company can establish its Bangladesh headquarters.
That is very different from simply selling apartments.
4. Build a Dhaka Innovation Economy
Dhaka needs to move beyond being primarily a manufacturing/service center.
I would establish several Innovation Districts.
Potential sectors:
Create physical ecosystems combining:
University + research center + startup incubator + venture capital + offices + housing.
This is important because innovation generates high-income employment, and high-income employment generates sustainable real-estate demand.
5. Make Dhaka a regional data-center and digital-infrastructure hub
This could become a major new real-estate sector.
Develop:
Data centers + fiber networks + cloud infrastructure + renewable energy + industrial land
around carefully selected locations.
But Bangladesh should not simply compete on cheap land.
The competitive advantage should be:
Reliable power + connectivity + security + climate resilience + skilled labor.
Data centers can also anchor entire technology clusters.
6. Transform Dhaka's rivers into economic assets
This could be one of the most transformative projects.
The Buriganga and surrounding waterways should not be treated simply as polluted drainage channels.
Develop a:
“Dhaka Blue-Green Network”
combining:
The lesson from cities such as Seoul and Singapore is that water can become an urban asset rather than an urban liability.
7. Turn flooding into a design problem—not simply a disaster
Future Dhaka must become a climate-resilient city.
I would establish a metropolitan:
Flood & Climate Resilience Plan
including:
Every major development should be required to demonstrate:
Where does the rainwater go?
That question should be as important as:
How many apartments can be built?
8. Build affordable housing at massive scale
This is perhaps the biggest social and economic opportunity.
Dhaka doesn't primarily need more luxury apartments.
It needs affordable, well-connected housing.
I would create a:
“1 Million Affordable Homes Programme”
over 10–15 years.
But government should not build everything itself.
Instead:
Government → land + infrastructure + planning
Private sector → construction + management
Financial institutions → mortgages
Institutional investors → rental housing
This creates a functioning housing ecosystem.
9. Develop a professional rental-housing industry
This is potentially a huge investment opportunity.
Instead of every family having to purchase an apartment, establish institutional rental housing:
International investors could own portfolios of rental properties.
This would gradually transform Bangladesh's property market from:
individual apartment sales
into:
institutional real-estate investment.
10. Create a “Dhaka Global Investment Platform”
This is essential.
International investors need more than attractive property.
They need confidence.
I would create a single investment platform providing:
Ideally, much of this should be digital.
The message to global investors should be:
“You can understand the entire development process before you invest.”
11. Introduce transparent land and property data
This could revolutionize Bangladesh's property market.
Create a national/metropolitan:
Digital Land & Property Information System
containing:
This reduces information asymmetry.
It also creates the foundation for:
AVM/CAMA + digital valuation + property taxation + mortgage finance.
For a modern real-estate economy, good property data is infrastructure.
12. Use land-value capture to finance infrastructure
This is one of the most important ideas I would recommend.
Suppose government builds a metro station.
Before:
Land value = 100
After:
Land value = 180
Why did the additional 80 occur?
Partly because the public investment created accessibility.
Therefore, government should capture a portion of that increase through:
Then reinvest the money in:
metro + roads + parks + drainage + affordable housing.
This creates a virtuous cycle:
Infrastructure → land value → public revenue → more infrastructure.
13. Make Dhaka a “Green Real Estate” laboratory
Develop a new building standard based on:
Energy + Water + Waste + Mobility + Climate
Buildings should progressively incorporate:
But there is an important principle:
Green buildings should not merely be more expensive buildings.
The goal should be lower:
energy cost + water cost + operating cost + climate risk.
14. Build a world-class logistics city
Dhaka is not only a residential market.
It is the heart of Bangladesh's economic distribution system.
I would create a metropolitan logistics strategy connecting:
Dhaka ↔ Chattogram Port ↔ inland waterways ↔ rail ↔ highways ↔ airports
with:
This could generate enormous industrial real-estate demand.
15. Create a Dhaka International Property Fund
This is where global investment becomes particularly interesting.
Rather than asking foreign investors to buy individual condominiums, create professionally managed investment vehicles:
Dhaka Real Estate Investment Platform
Potential asset classes:
International pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, REIT-type vehicles and private-equity investors could participate.
This would bring long-term institutional capital, rather than speculative short-term money.
16. The governance reform may be more important than the construction
Dhaka cannot become a world-class city simply by building more buildings.
It needs:
Metropolitan governance.
Dhaka should have much stronger coordination among:
Urban development does not respect administrative boundaries.
Dhaka should therefore be planned as one metropolitan economic system.
A possible “Future Dhaka 2035” framework
I would organize the entire strategy around 10 pillars:
The most important idea
If I were advising Bangladesh's government, I would not describe Future Dhaka as a "smart city."
That phrase has become too vague.
I would call it:
FUTURE DHAKA 2035
A Global, Green & Innovative Megacity
And establish one overarching objective:
“Make Dhaka a city where global capital wants to invest, global companies want to operate, talented people want to work, families can afford to live, and future generations can live safely.”
The real-estate strategy then becomes very clear:
Don't simply build more buildings.
Build the urban ecosystem that makes buildings valuable.
That means:
Transport → Infrastructure → Jobs → Housing → Environment → Investment → Land Value → Economic Growth.
This approach could make Dhaka one of the most significant urban-development and real-estate investment opportunities in South Asia over the next 15 years—provided Bangladesh can overcome governance, infrastructure, financing, environmental and land-management constraints.
